anyone good with stats?

[breadmaster]

i'm trying to find out which formula to use to get the duping probabilities

say:

deck=56
hand=8
card in question= 2/3/4

[Jack]

Here's your homework:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypergeometric_distribution

This does not imply that I'm good at stats.

EDIT:

You might want to read through this one too:

http://www.kibble.net/magic/magic10.php

[steve2275]

thanks jack

[Jack]

Since we're looking for a real statistician, I want to get some ideas on how to figure out some of the stats provided on David John Marotta's page:

http://overpower.ca/archive/newopinfo/notricks.html

I want to know how he calculated these:

Code Select Expand

Using my card valuations:
0.8257 Avg. dupes/hand
24.8843 Avg. attack/hand
27.6257 Avg. Defense/hand
24.8843 Avg damage/hand
41.6871 Avg venture/hand
5.8106 Avg venture/kept card

[breadmaster]

that's beyond my ken

maybe 10 years ago...

[Onslaught]

DJM had this weird habit of assigning average venture based on how long a character could be expected to live, so his calculations vary wildly from format to format.

I.e., during shift era you can count on a character to be alive "100% of the time," vs. JLA format he counted it around 50%. From there you take the venture value of each card and calculate the average amount of non duped cards you have per hand taking into account how often the drawn cards will be playable.

Don't get too fixated on things like "venture per hand" unless your deck has an extremely low amount of unique cards. If you happen to have a really redundant deck (usually with Any Heroes, maybe a clone char with KO event or a hardy lineup like Cap/WW/Zealot/3 Stat Spi-Woman), then you actually CAN just run straight numbers like that because the trades will always be in your favor. For example, they have 23 points to venture placed, 5 cards in hand, you know their 11 is gone so their max possible venture in hand is "X", compare that to your total amount to venture for the turn, and then place your bet based on that since you are willing to just trade hits, etc...stuff like that. The beauty of Overpower though is that it is impossible to quantify...there are so many qualitative values to each individual card, let alone the tactical measure and strategy your opponent will employ. Still, statistics are really fun and interesting. I run stats all the time on my decks just for the hell of it, with the most practical one obviously being dupe ratio.

When you're doing hypergeometric distributions, just give the formula to Excel and then remember that you are solving for the chances that you DON'T draw something, so you want to subtract that from 1 afterwards.